It's a serious profession

One of the things I love about the newspaper trade is its high-minded commitment to enlightening the public This was in the Gloucestershire Echo Read it here

Autumn or Spring

This appeared in the Gloucestershire Echo and Gloucester Citizen
Read it here.

The lessons of Lyndon Johnson. Why David Cameron may yet be glad of defeat

The defeat of the coalition government over Thursday’s motion in Parliament has been presented as a humiliation for David Cameron.

 And it’s never good for a Prime Minister not to be able to command a majority in the House of Commons. That way lies the path to the door to No 10, on the way out; one’s own foundation and millions of pounds in speaking engagements.

But it might be that David Cameron will be very grateful indeed for the defeat.

The one thing we know about getting involved militarily in the Middle East is that it’s never as easy as it looks.

When Northern Alliance forces took Kabul behind the BBC’s John Simpson after a few days fighting in 2001, the war in Afghanistan looked done. Five years later British troops were deployed to Helmand and Defence Secretary John Reid hope they wouldn’t have to fire ‘a shot in anger.’ US vice-presidenet Dick Cheney predicted coalition troops would be welcomed in Iraqi towns like liberators, having flowers strewn upon them. The only response to those thoughts is: “How did that work out for you, fellers?”

I’ve no doubt David Cameron wants to engage in action against Assad’s regime in Syria. The case for it is nigh-on compelling. (The only questions the pro-action faction haven’t answered are : “How will it help?” and “How will it end?”; unfortunately we have learned in the last dozen years that they are critical ones.)

But he should learn the lessons of Lyndon Johnson.

Johnson was  a president who inherited a war he didn’t care about. He is on record as describing Vietnam as ‘that bitch of a war.’ Yet it is all he is remembered for.

 The fact that he, a Texas, southern Democrat, remember, enacted, and then enforced sweeping civil rights legislation, and did much to eradicate near-third-world rural poverty in the US is almost totally forgotten.

What is recalled is body counts, naked girls running down roads and “hey, hey, LBJ, how many kids did you kill today?”

My point is, war defines administrations, unless leaders are very lucky.

 It did for Johnson. It does for Tony Blair. The Falklands war is one of two defining moments in Margaret’ Thatcher’s 11 years as PM. It lasted 2 months out of 138 months of her rule, less than 1.5 per cent of her time in office. It is what we remember her for.

David Cameron is free of that. But he is also free of any charge of cowardice; of appeasing dictators; or moral laxity.

He wanted, he wants, to take action. But Parliament has spoken. The British people have spoken. He gets it. His hands are tied.

I’m sure he is disappointed. Possibly furious. But when I hear him say he will listen to parliament, I think I hear unconscious relief. H wanted to make the tough choice, do what perhaps is the right thing, but he can’t.

 His time as PM won’t be defined by the dead children, and the bodybags at Brize Norton, and  funeral parades at Wootton Bassett. If he isn’t relieved, perhaps he should be.