The defeat of the coalition government over
Thursday’s motion in Parliament has been presented as a humiliation for David
Cameron.
And it’s never good for a Prime Minister not to be able to
command a majority in the House of Commons. That way lies the path to the door
to No 10, on the way out; one’s own foundation and millions of pounds in
speaking engagements.
But it might be that David Cameron will be
very grateful indeed for the defeat.
The one thing we know about getting
involved militarily in the Middle East is that it’s never as easy as it looks.
When Northern Alliance forces took Kabul
behind the BBC’s John Simpson after a few days fighting in 2001, the war in Afghanistan
looked done. Five years later British troops were deployed to Helmand and
Defence Secretary John Reid hope they wouldn’t have to fire ‘a shot in anger.’
US vice-presidenet Dick Cheney predicted coalition troops would be welcomed in
Iraqi towns like liberators, having flowers strewn upon them. The only response
to those thoughts is: “How did that work out for you, fellers?”
I’ve no doubt David Cameron wants to engage
in action against Assad’s regime in Syria. The case for it is nigh-on
compelling. (The only questions the pro-action faction haven’t answered are :
“How will it help?” and “How will it end?”; unfortunately we have learned in
the last dozen years that they are critical ones.)
But he should learn the lessons of Lyndon
Johnson.
Johnson was a president who inherited a war he didn’t care about. He is
on record as describing Vietnam as ‘that bitch of a war.’ Yet it is all he is
remembered for.
The fact that he, a Texas, southern Democrat, remember,
enacted, and then enforced sweeping civil rights legislation, and did much to
eradicate near-third-world rural poverty in the US is almost totally forgotten.
What is recalled is body counts, naked girls
running down roads and “hey, hey, LBJ, how many kids did you kill today?”
My point is, war defines administrations,
unless leaders are very lucky.
It did for Johnson. It does for Tony Blair. The Falklands
war is one of two defining moments
in Margaret’ Thatcher’s 11 years as PM. It lasted 2 months out of 138 months of
her rule, less than 1.5 per cent of her time in office. It is what we remember
her for.
David Cameron is free of that. But he is
also free of any charge of cowardice; of appeasing dictators; or moral laxity.
He wanted, he wants, to take action. But
Parliament has spoken. The British people have spoken. He gets it. His hands
are tied.
I’m sure he is disappointed. Possibly
furious. But when I hear him say he will listen to parliament, I think I hear
unconscious relief. H wanted to make the tough choice, do what perhaps is the
right thing, but he can’t.
His time as PM won’t be defined by the dead children, and the
bodybags at Brize Norton, and
funeral parades at Wootton Bassett. If he isn’t relieved, perhaps he
should be.
No comments:
Post a Comment